Some praise, others pan, Brazil's carbon plan

Some praise, others pan, Brazil's carbon plan

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Many environmentalists are commending Brazil for the carbon-reduction plan it has released in advance of the upcoming U.N. climate summit, which is scheduled to begin Nov. 30 in Paris, France, with the goal of producing a successor agreement to the Kyoto Protocol.
Some others, though, fault the Brazilian blueprint on grounds that it and the proposals of other leading carbon-emitting countries would not collectively achieve the emissions reductions needed to avoid the catastrophic consequences of global warming. And even those green groups who see merit Brazil's plan question how its targets can be reached.
Before the summit convenes, U.N. member countries are expected to submit their carbono plans-called "intended nationally determined contributions" or INDCs-to specify their emission reductions and how they'll achieve them. Brazil was the last big greenhouse-gas emitter to do so before an Oct. 1 deadline.
Brazil's plan, submitted Sept. 28, would reduce emissions by 37% by 2025 (to 1.3 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent, or gtCO2e) and by 43% by 2030 (to 1.2 gtCO2e) compared to the 2005 level of 2.1 gtCO2e. The plan assumes the share of renewable power in the energy matrix will rise to 45% by 2030 from its current 39.5%, largely by boosting non-hydroelectric renewables between 28% and 33%. It also assumes a 10% energy-efficiency improvement in the electric-power sector, restoring 12 million hectares (30 million acres) of forest and eliminating illegal deforestation by 2030.
Detail in plan welcomed
Experts credit Brazil for including absolute and quantifiable emissions targets rather than simply establishing percentage-reduction goals, as some other nations did. Brazil also provided an intermediate emissions-reduction goal-the 2025 target-whereas many big emitters only provided a final, 2030 goal. "Brazil's INDC, which featured quantifiable emissions reductions and a two-step timetable for cutting them, were among the most ambitious yet proposed by one of the world's top 10 carbon emitters," says Carlos Rittl, executive secretary of Climate Observatory, a network of non-governmental groups that monitor Brazilian carbono emissions. "These intentions, measured against those of other big emitters, are a good start to help bring down global temperatures."
Pedro Telles, a climate and energy campaigner for Greenpeace Brasil, agrees, but hoped for more. "[Brazil] could have pledged to cut emissions by up to 57% by 2030, according to a Climate Observatory study," Telles says. "It is also significant that Brazil is the first major developing country to say that it has already peaked in its emissions, in its case in 2004-05 [because of] a record spike in Amazon deforestation. China, for example, says it will grow emissions until they peak no later than 2030."
Others fault Brazil for establishing 2005 as the baseline for its INDC commitments, precisely because greenhouse emissions then were abnormally high on account of a spike in the country's ongoing Amazon deforestation. "[That's] when emissions peaked in Brazil," says Carlos Bocuhy, president of the nonprofit Environmental Protection Institute (Proam) and a member of the public-private National Environmental Council, Brazil's top environmental policy-making body. "It should be closer to 2015 to reflect today's climate scenario." Márcio Santilli, co-founder of the nonprofit Social-Environmental Institute (ISA), agrees. Said Santilli in a statement posted Sept.
28 on ISA's website: "We are saying that our contribution to reducing global emissions has already occurred, when pornographic Amazon deforestation rates were slashed [following the emissions peak in 2004-05] and, in the next 15 years, we won't do anything beyond stabilizing emissions at a level already reached. Such a goal signifies zero ambition."
Two-degree goal cited
The bottom line, argues Proam's Bocuhy, is that Brazil's plan falls short of what the world needs. Says Bocuhy: "It doesn't ref lect the severity of emissions cuts needed to keep global temperatures from rising beyond 2 degrees Celsius [or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, relative to pre-industrial levels, the limit scientists say is needed to avoid the serious consequences of global warming]." The aggregate of alreadysubmitted INDCs, if implemented, would only limit global warming to 2.7oC, according to na analysis released this month by the Climate Action Tracker, an independent assessment of countries' emissions commitments.
Many analysts, however, argue Brazil's climate plan should be regarded as a promising first step. "Brazil's core INDCs were close to the best possible commitment we expected the country to make," says Henrique Lian, head of public policy and external affairs for the WWF in Brazil. "We never expected Brazil or any other country to offer INDCs ambitious enough to help keep global temperatures below 2o C at this point in global climate talks. A country's INDC is only a starting point to Paris summit negotiations to be finalized via financing and technology transfers to help implement INDCs at large. So, as a starting point, Brazil's INDC was sufficiently ambitious."
-Michael Kepp

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